This post first appeared in the WSJ Accelerators series titled The $100,000 Experiment in response to the question “When should you make a substantive change to one or more parts of your business model?”

During the past few years, the word “pivot” has become one of the most overused words with regard to startups. For some, it means a tiny incremental change in the business. For others, it means killing off whatever path you are on and rebooting the business, creating something entirely different. For others, it means everything in between.

A long time ago, I realized that every successful business was a continuous process of small experiments that operated in the context of a long-term vision. When an experiment worked, you did more of it. When it didn’t, you ended it and moved on.

The magnitude of these experiments are dependent on the stage and resources of the company. If you are a three person startup with very little money in the bank, your experiments are tiny ones. As you get bigger and have more success, your experiments can get larger.

I was once on the board of a company that was cash-flow positive early in its life. The entrepreneur decided to raise more money, even though he didn’t need to. I was perplexed and asked him why he was raising the amount of money he had decided to raise. His answer was that when he had no cash in the bank, he was willing to run $1,000 experiments. When the company was cash-flow positive, he was comfortable running $10,000 experiments. He now wanted to feel comfortable running $100,000 experiments, and this financing enabled him to do this. If he ran a $100,000 experiment and it failed, it wouldn’t tank the business.

When an experiment works, do more of it. So the $10,000 experiment that pays for itself in three days by generating $4,000 of gross margin on a daily basis is worth doubling down on and running at the $20,000 level. If this generates $8,000 of gross margin on a daily basis, double down again.

But if the first $10,000 experiment generates nothing, study the data that results from it. Make sure you measure your experiment. Create a hypothesis about what a successful outcome would be. Try to control as many variables as you can while you are testing something new, so you understand what is actually going on. If you find yourself devolving into a qualitative discussion about all elements of the experiment, you won’t learn much.

If your successful experiments are pushing you in a direction that is different from your long-term vision, or from the existing core business you are running, step back and think hard about what you are learning. Are your experiments conclusive enough to cause you to change your strategy? Do they reveal surface problems in your existing business or strong suggestions about better approaches?

If your successful experiments are doing this, then consider a serious shift in your business. But in the absence of this data, be very careful about defaulting into a mode of constantly and aggressively yanking on the steering wheel of your business. Instead, do small experiments, often.

If you want another perspective on this, go read the WSJ Accelerator article by David Cohen (TechStars CEO) titled Use Your Head, But Trust Your Gut.

January 3rd, 2013 Categories: Entrepreneurship Tags: Entrepreneurship, experiment, pivot

http://byJess.net/ Jess Bachman

So are you saying that raising money to run $100k experiments was a smart move by this entrepreneur? Or is “small” a relative term based on how much money is in the bank?
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  In this case, it was extremely smart as many of these larger experiments paid off and the company grew (revenue and bottom line) extremely quickly as a result.
http://www.facebook.com/osmanparvez Osman Parvez

The benefit of experiments apply to your personal and professional life too. Even if you’re not an entrepreneur. Don’t forget, it’s all play.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  “Don’t forget, it’s all play.” That’s a line that everyone should say to themselves first thing in the morning.
  - http://about.me/kirsten.lambertsen Kirsten Lambertsen
    
    It sure is!
André Thénot

Another way to look at this is to isolate the experiments from the rest of the business: making sure that the invalidation of a hypothesis costs the minimum amount of resources. Doesn’t that fall under the category of “fail fast”?
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  Yup – it’s very important that these are experiments. If they fail, they don’t bring down the business and can quickly be killed. If they succeed, you do more, and incorporate them into the core business.
http://www.eliainsider.com Elia Freedman

We seem to misunderstand a lot of the lean startup movement. The CEO of Redfin wrote a post Monday lamenting the minimum viable product, completely missing its point: to develop enough of a product to start a customer conversation. The battle over the definition of these things is important as the winners write history and the concepts flowing out of lean startup are ridiculously important.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  This is an important point. I’m a huge fan of both Steve Blank and Eric Ries. If you want to be serious about Lean Startup, you need to study and understand both of them. And when I say “study”, I mean really go deep and learn / understand what they are talking about, not just the lingo that gets bounced around.
  - http://www.engag.io/Abdallah Abdallah Al-Hakim
    
    yup! the lingo getting passed around is a major problem as many just keep repeating flashy words without understanding the topic in depth!
- http://jimshook.tumblr.com/ Jim Shook
  
  I think the Redfin CEOs point wasn’t that the lean startup concept itself was problematic, but that others’ interpretation and application of it was.
  
  Also, thats a great definition of the MVP: “to develop enough of a product to start a customer conversation”. Might have to use that…
  - http://www.eliainsider.com Elia Freedman
    
    He didn’t help his own cause with his examples of what were not minimum viable products. The truth is the iPhone, for example, was an MVP. His point was mis-guided.
    
    Feel free to use it. The 10-word (or less) definitions work better if we can frame them correctly.
http://blog.kwiqly.com/ James Ferguson @kWIQly

Brad – did you see this – its almost identical in its implications http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/05/dont_let_the_minimum_win_over.html
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  I hadn’t seen it – it’s an outstanding post. Thanks for sharing.
- http://www.engag.io/Abdallah Abdallah Al-Hakim
  
  really great article James. Thanks for re-posting!
Frank Miller

What are the dynamics on the investor side when a startup goes through a major “pivot?” I’ve often thought that if a startup gets to the point where they need to reset, the investors are the ones that really take the brunt of that. Why would the investors stick around? I mean the business is essentially admitting that their previous direction is not viable. I suppose it depends heavily on what they are pivoting too but as an investor, do you you go back to square one evaluating them for additional funds? Does the fact that you already have money in that company cause you to think differently about them going forward than you would a fresher business?
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  It varies dramatically by investor, and then by company situation. Some investors give up at the first pivot. Others hang in and keep funding through endless pivots. And, of course, the definition of pivot varies. So – there is no simple rule, but past behavior by the investors is a particular good indicator of future behavior.
http://twitter.com/rankinthomas thomas

Great post Brad. I’ve been disenchanted with all of the media hype around a bursting ‘seed bubble’ and a ‘series A crunch’. Rather than predicting some impending startup doomsday, we should continue to support the process of experimentation that happens at the startup team and seed investor level.

Sure the bar for the A round remains high, but that shouldn’t discourage the testing of teams, ideas and markets at a seed stage. The owness should remain on founders and investors to show and prove.

My own thoughts on experimentation and striking bubble, crunch & cliff from the record, here:

http://impossibleconfidence.com/post/39565377927/bubble-crunch-cliff#.UOXDFG9lWRs
http://www.engag.io/Abdallah Abdallah Al-Hakim

This is a terrific post and fits nicely with many of the concepts discussed in Nasim Taleb’s book ‘Antifragility’. Having asymmetry generates options and knowing how much is true ‘risk’ capital is an important point. According to Nasim, it is the lessons from the small experiments that make the system more antifragile which is good (according to him).
Jeffrey Hartmann

As a technical guy I’d like to give a little technical advice regarding this point and building your product for small experiments from the beginning. Its really powerful and a very worthwhile investment.

Your application and data storage schema should be built with experimentation in mind. You should associate your users with some sort of cohort immediately when they are registered. You can use an abstraction to generate a cohort for each new user, and just stub it out with code that hard codes to a single cohort in the beginning. You can later replace this abstraction with something more complicated, and you should build your tables/objects that contain configurable data with associations to the cohorts that can see them. I usually build these as two way association tables, and use existence conditions in these tables to decide if I use that data for the given user. This lets you build a out functionality like A/B testing subscription plans available, flow through the UI, etc. really easy. You don’t have to build out the structure on everything but keep in mind that you can always add the associations to additional items and structures as things get more sophisticated.

You should also capture at the minimum navigation data to a user session associated click stream. Its very easy to fire a little event to capture the data asynchronously whenever an element in your UI is clicked. You should also track when the application window is closed. Obviously it is good to use third party tools in addition to this, but having your own data that is readily available when you need it is super important. Another thing that is good to do is use some of the freely available databases that can give you a rough idea of user geographic location based on IP address. Use this sort of data to your advantage to figure out where your marketing/messaging is being effective.

Build your product for this experimentation, you will thank yourself later. Its so easy when you build something like this to start segmenting your cohorts by week or month and being able to get statistical data about user behaviors and conversion rates. With more data your decisions are so much better.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  Great suggestions, especially the cohort analysis from the very beginning. I’ve invested in way too many companies where six months in when we went back to try to figure out what was working and what wasn’t working, it was impossible to measure anything because we hadn’t collected the appropriate data. +Seth Levine and I are going to cover a lot of this in our upcoming book Startup Metrics.
http://blog.kwiqly.com/ James Ferguson @kWIQly

Brad – My wife saw this and said it is a paraphrase of Solomon’s words in Ecclesiastes (so Judaeo / Christian teaching)

” Sow your seed in the morning, and at evening let not your hands be idle, for you do not know which will succeed, whether this or that, or whether both will do equally well.”

Guess that’s about it !
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  Nice quote – I’ll use it in the future for sure.
http://www.justanentrepreneur.com Philip Sugar

You know the most powerful asset a small business has over a big business is the willingness to waste money. I know this sounds strange, but its true. At a big company people are so afraid to make a mistake that they spend people-years worth of time studying a market, having meetings about a strategy, and in the end no decision gets made because that’s the safe choice. Nobody gets fired for not making a decision, but trying something and failing is career death. Its ironic when you think about how much money gets wasted not making a decision. Its powerful to embrace all decisions as a “waste of money” http://justanentrepreneur.com/?p=88

At a small company you can make a decision, get it wrong, learn, make a change, learn again, and get it right and succeed. If all the holes you are drilling are above the “waterline” you’ll make a huge success. That to me is what pivoting is about, its triangulating on the right solution.

I literally was in a meeting where a twelve person start up had built such a good product that a multi-billion dollar company had to partner with them. They showed videos of the first prototypes and a BigCo engineer gasped and said under his breath, “somebody would have gotten fired for that” meaning the first prototype didn’t work.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  The irony, of course, is the massive amount of money wasted by the big companies in their analysis cycle!
  - http://twitter.com/andyidsinga andyidsinga
    
    yup
  - http://twitter.com/craigcherlet Craig Cherlet
    
    I’m stuck in one of these analysis cycles right now spending days and $1000′s of dollars to help a large insurance client forecast/predict support volumes coming into a new support call center. No historical data to go off of just analyzing data based on 100′s of assumptions on what people “think” will happen to prove we need 6 or 12 people to support this new application roll out. They could save 1000′s if a director just made a decision and moved forward. They are so scared to make a decision that they need to have reams of analysis supported data even if it’s based on “educated” guessing.
- http://www.DomainRegistry.com/ LE
  
  “big company people are so afraid to make a mistake”
  
  I think that is more of a people thing then a company size thing although it is certainly more prevalent at large companies.
  
  People will judge employees and coworkers and decide by the choices they make whether they did the right thing or not and reward if appropriate and pillory if the wrong thing happens.
  
  When you are making decisions on your own account, and nobody is there to judge, it is natural to be able to take more chances, isn’t it?
  
  I had a case recently where I was handling a domain purchase for a client (referred by somebody that we all know). I already had an agreement from both parties and a deal was struck for a high 5 figure amount. This deal took almost a year exceptionally long and drawn out. I would make the same amount of money no matter what the end sale price was. I had no (financial) motivation whatsoever to try and do better. In fact, if I messed the deal up I would definitely lose. I sensed though that there was money on the table, smelled blood in the water, and that I could get the domain for an even lower price. If this was a deal that I was doing on my own account there is no question what I would do because it’s what I always do which is follow my gut. But since I was working for others I took a large risk by going back in and attempting to get the purchase price down even further by bullshitting the seller. Let me repeat this was after the buyer agreed to the sellers demands and the deal (because of my bluff) could have blown up.
  
  Luckily it all worked out. I was thanked by the buyer, tested out my theory and was correct. But I could have lost big also (not my fee but my pride and validation of my gut). So why did I take the chance when I had so little to gain? I couldn’t resist I guess or was drawn to the danger. And saved the buyer money (I rationalized that I was not going to be the lame person who takes the easy way out.)
  
  From that single experience I know very clearly why people don’t take chances when working for someone else. In fact the only reason I could take the chance is that I have as they say “fuck you money” (not meaning I”m rich but it doesn’t really matter that much these deals I do mainly for fun it’s not the main way I make a living and the compensation is trivial and hardly worth the time) so I can afford to take the chances.
  
  But If I was employed by anyone else doing the same thing for a salary and health benefits I will have to honesty say that I wouldn’t have taken a chance like that.
  - http://www.justanentrepreneur.com Philip Sugar
    
    No I think it is related to the size. It is my 5% rule of why it is hard to sell to big organizations. If a person at BigCo makes an out of the box decision and it goes unbelievably well they get a 5% raise, if its wrong they get fired, we already know they are risk averse, its a really hard choice to go for the 5%.
    
    If you are at a small company the default position is if you don’t make decisions the company will fail so you have much more freedom to make decisions.
    
    Its about the default outcome.
    - http://www.feld.com bfeld
      
      I agree with Philip on this. @LE – the “people” that are attracted to big companies are part of the effect. I think Philip got the causality right – it’s about the default outcome – “get a 5% raise or get fired.” The old cliche “no one gets fired for buying IBM” immediately comes to mind.
      - jasonstoddard
        
        In startup culture, bearish on BigCo is so rampant it’s cliche. Startup entrepreneurs’ disdain approaches hostility. This is a weakness.
        
        In the following clip from “Rounders”, is Teddy KGB the startup entrepreneur or the enterprise? http://youtu.be/5RiuE1rWnso
      - http://www.feld.com bfeld
        
        My observation isn’t that it’s disdain. Rather, in – at least entrepreneurs trying hard to win – it’s an understanding and perspective of the difference between the contexts. Stress often causes this to appear as disdain, sarcasm, and frustration, but for any serious entrepreneur creating products used by big enterprises their goal should be to help the big company people win. And I see this often!
      - http://www.feld.com bfeld
        
        That is such an awesome scene from Rounders. Mike (Matt Daemon) is so incredibly awesome in that scene. They are both entrepreneurs – Mike is just calm and calculating, whereas Teddy KGB is a wild-eye crazy. Both styles work, but only one can win in Texas Holdem.
      - Bob@dealangel
        
        Matt DAEMON… LOL
      - http://www.feld.com bfeld
        
        Oops – Neurdian slip.
      - http://www.justanentrepreneur.com Philip Sugar
        
        I am not disdainful of big companies. Actually just the opposite. I sell to and partner with only giant organizations. I think partnerships between two small companies generally is just a press release with no value. In my example that was inking a partnership with the biggest of the big, would I do that if I was hostile towards them? Everyday I spend my time with Fortune 500 executives.
        
        Its just important to know what the differences are and what the strengths and weakness are. There is nothing wrong with being risk adverse. I am with the money I get when I sell a company. When you are small you just have to realize what your strengths are and they certainly are not the amount of resources you have behind you, they are with your willingness to take risk.
- http://www.bucketlistly.com/ Pete R.
  
  Well said. Taking the safe route means standing still and letting daring competitors surpass. No wonder why big corporates are failing left and right nowadays, from Nokia, to Dell etc.
http://about.me/kirsten.lambertsen Kirsten Lambertsen

I just re-read Purple Cow this month. I was struck by the way parts of it kind of presage the Lean approach.

When I first learned about Lean, I thought, “Oh, this is direct marketing applied to product and market development.” When I worked in DM 15 years ago, the mantra was, “Test before you invest.”
Ketan

Very nice hypothesis. It allows one to deal with failures objectively. +1
James Ryan III

I think whats so cool about this concept is how widely applicable it is. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written extensively about it, Vinod Khosla uses it to describe his investing philosophy, and it is obviously a big part of Lean Startup. Really cool to see you writing about it. Your anecdote about the firm that was cash flow positive but raised another round is excellent!

I think a cool way to frame the idea is the importance of being able to experiment while being robust against failure. That is, a bunch of experiments may fail and the firm needs to allow for fallibility in its business plan.

http://www.illumifigroup.com/2012/12/19/the-importance-of-optionality/
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  “While being robust against failure” is an important concept. I try to build failure into everything I do – I expect plenty of it, on a regular basis. When an organization understands how to have lots of little failures, learn from them, and keep going, they get a lot stronger. This is true about human beings and life in general as well!
http://arnoldwaldstein.com/ awaldstein

I never have a marketing budget that doesn’t fund something that is just that…a direction that impacts business only if it works.

You touched on something else though that I mentioned on your blog the other day that came up in a post I wrote this morning inspired by the dialog we had ( http://awe.sm/iCcUn ).

Last year was a bear, kinda momentumless in a lot of ways for many businesses. Sometimes there wasn’t even enough data to make enough sense of to pivot. Some small companies just chased their tails with changes. Some, if lucky enough to have cash flow focused down and had patience.

Point is that sometimes you need to give the market time and when digging for customer feedback is a labor in its own right, you often don’t have enough to make a decision around.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  The link to LuliTonix on your blog looks awesome. I hope there’s a way to figure out how to get them to Boulder soon. Amy and I have been juicing like maniacs the last month and I’m really getting into it now that I’m v47.
  - http://arnoldwaldstein.com/ awaldstein
    
    We are just getting started but getting some traction.
    
    Lianna is a wizard at this. She built the hydration beverages for the Bikram Yoga vertical and looking into Crossfit and the needs of interval based weight training.
    
    The stuff just really works for health, energy and weight loss. Especially when combined with non alergenic cooking. And done right, blended as smoothies not juiced, really tastes great.
http://engag.io/ William Mougayar

Funny I was having a discussion the other day with a product manager entrepreneur about the difference between a pivot and iterations. He was calling pivots what seemed to be iterations.

This backs-up the point you started with that it means different things to different people, but is that good? I think we need some rigor in these definitions. Yes, there is a common element which is change and innovation.

Let me try this and tell me if it’s in the right direction or we’ll iterate on it (pun):

- A pivot should relate to the entire company’s path or raison d’etre
- An iteration is typically an improvement or new features/capabilities that are already in-line or close to the roadmap
- An experiment is a small or big undertaking where you deviate a bit more from the roadmap to test something that may turn into a pivot or could be folded as an iteration
- http://www.justanentrepreneur.com Philip Sugar
  
  I take pivot for its definition, which is you pivot around a fixed point or pin. Just like in basketball when you pivot, you must keep one foot firmly planted.
  
  So when you go from a daily deals site to an ad management platform, that’s not a pivot that’s being a roombapreneur as Andy Swan would say.
  - http://www.feld.com bfeld
    
    @Philip Sugar – a lot of people will use pivot for your example. And that’s ok – it’s a “completely pivot” or a “reset”. I personally prefer “reset”, unless the core of the ad platform refers back to the daily deals business which would be stupid, but we saw plenty of these when the daily deals business exploded. We saw the same thing in social gaming when Zynga took off. Lots of fast followers that went no where – some of them “pivoted” into add networks or loyalty platforms for social gaming. That predictably didn’t work out well for almost all of them.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  Your definitions are good. It is definitely the case that people are referring to “iterations” as “pivots” and that’s a big mistake as it confuses the dynamic. However, “pivots” can be small, vs. full company changing things (e.g. getting rid of a product, changing a pricing model, going after a different distribution channel.) Iterations tend to be subsets of pivots – things you do “within an arc” to try to figure out what the right answer is. Optimally, you try a bunch of small experiments before you make a pivot, where each of these experiments goes through a series of iterations as you refine them.
  - http://engag.io/ William Mougayar
    
    Thanks. We agree well on this point.
- dvasefi
  
  I like your definitions – would only add on the experiments point that as I’m understanding experiments should be how you will actually “find” your path. So if a path is built using the correct lean experiments there should be minimal deviations once you get there, does that make sense?
  - http://engag.io/ William Mougayar
    
    That sounds like features (that are on the roadmap) validation to me. I’m interpreting experiments as part of slight deviations that might or might not get somewhere.
    - dvasefi
      
      Exactly, when I create a product I’ve come up with a set of features I “think” are going to be useful. The experimentation process, if done correctly will help validate or invalidate my thoughts – not to completely ignore the feature but to re-consider. Ultimately I should not have any features in the product that have not gone thru a few experiments with positive results.
Dave Crenshaw

Brilliant post! I especially love this: ” Every successful business was a continuous process of small experiments
that operated in the context of a long-term vision. When an experiment
worked, you did more of it. When it didn’t, you ended it and moved on.”
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Philip Wilkinson

What good examples would you have for these “experiments”? Anything tangible or case study which shows different ones at different levels?
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  Have you read Lean Startup? Lots of good examples there. Also the new book coming out Lean Entrepreneur.
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DJ Gravis

Ramblings from yet another self-appointed guardian of the status quo. I recommend the Zeitgeist films to cure the unwavering stupidity.
- http://www.feld.com bfeld
  
  DJ – I can’t tell whether you are trying to insult me or Jeffrey. Which one of the particular Zeitgeist films do you recommend?
http://www.sharanyan.com/ Sharanyan Sharma

Without Fail, You will never know your Strenght
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Jason Roesslein

Startups don’t pivot, they just walk funny.
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