Oh goody, they are here. Every magazine, newspaper, and most of the online publications known to man are putting together their “2008 year in review” and their “2009 prediction” editions. What a fucking waste of human energy.
This has been one of my pet peeves for 20+ years. For a while I managed to ignore them completely. At some point I started getting asked for my predictions and succumbed to my ego for a few years and participated in the prediction folly. At some point I realized that there was zero correlation between my predictions and reality and that by participating, I was merely helping perpetuate this silliness.
The energy that goes into the “year in review” and “prediction” stuff seems to be significantly greater in “extreme” (both good and bad) times. The prognostications become stronger and bolder. The analysis by hindsight intensifies. I don’t think this benefits anyone.
Over dinner recently, I was having a discussion with a friend. The conversation took place in a very full and busy restaurant. At some point the discussion turned to the sentiment throughout the United States right now and how the level of anxiety, negativity, pessimism, depression, and downright panic seemed at an extremely high level and appeared disconnected from general reality. We talked about what “general reality” meant for a little while – both “our realities” (which are different) as well as our view of the “actual general reality in the United States.”
As we rolled through some of the discussion, I made the offhand comment that I thought much of the sentiment that existed started near the end of the summer a few weeks before the DNC. As I thought about it more, it made sense. For the 90 days prior to the election, all we heard and read was “things suck in America.” Oil hit $135 / barrel and was going to go to $200 / barrel (it’s $35 / barrel today.) Gas was going to be $10 / gallon (it’s under $2 / gallon in Colorado today.)
I was on vacation in England the week Lehman went bankrupt, AIG melted down, and Merrill Lynch got bought by Bank of America. Amy and I rarely watch TV on vacation (other than movies) but since CNBC’s Closing Bell was on about the time we were crawling into bed, we watched it as though it was a sporting event. Over the course of the week, we must have seen 100 different people predict 500 different things. 485 of them were wrong. Oh – and I read Taleb’s The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Of course, the financial markets have been a disaster in Q3 and Q4. The housing bubble has finally officially exploded (doesn’t explode sounds more dramatic than burst.) Unemployment is rising. Credit is frozen. Retail sales are massively off this Christmas. All companies except Walmart are having a tough Q4. Blah blah blah. And now come the 2009 predictions.
My prediction for 2009 – the vast majority of the 2009 predictions will be wrong. Ignore them. Find a Dharma that fits your Karma (more on that when I review Strategic Intuition: The Creative Spark in Human Achievement (Columbia Business School)
Fantastic post. The first book that came to mind when I saw this post in my RSS feeder was The Black Swan, which you immediately referenced. As humans we are really awful at making predictions and really good at looking at things in hindsight.
Yet there is something in our human nature that makes us look for predictions, patterns, and explanations.
In the financial world, it's analysts trying to predict future earnings and being completely wrong (Peter Lynch has a great write up on this in One up On Wall Street.) In the sports world, it's experts on ESPN trying to predict game outcomes and Superbowl winners. etc etc. In many ways, watching Sportscenter is akin to watching CNBC.
Perhaps the easiest prediction is that we as humans will always try to predict.
Comment by Boris M. Silver — December 24, 2008 @ 9:40 am
Great post. I could never have predicted this time last year where I would be this time this year. Too many variables enter into the mix. The prognosticators assume we operate in a vacuum. Happily, they are wrong. While this does not stop them from pulling predictions from their nether regions it doesn't mean we have to listen.
Comment by DonRyan — December 24, 2008 @ 9:51 am
Great Post. I couldn't agree more. I've been taught if you want do something in life the time is now. So according to that theory any time is a good time to accomplish your dream.
Comment by Jazzy Singh — December 24, 2008 @ 10:27 am
It's not the predictions that are bad, it's how people process them. A prediction isn't an excuse to not learn or evaluate a topic which is what usually happens. I'd rather see people refine their bullshit detectors and learn to take things with a grain of salt, especially since we're creatures of habit and *crave* predictability in our lives.
Comment by Bruce — December 24, 2008 @ 11:00 am
[...] Brad Feld seems to feel similarly: This has been one of my pet peeves for 20+ years. For a while I managed to ignore them [...]
Pingback by The Apple Product Prediction Scam « Survivor Bias — December 24, 2008 @ 7:48 pm
Along the same lines is this interview with Nassim Taleb: The Scandal of Prediction (http://odeo.com/episodes/1536626-Nassim-Taleb-The...
Comment by Barnaby James — December 25, 2008 @ 4:27 am
As Will Rogers said, "It's not that people are so stupid, it's just that they know so many things are not true." Great Post…I couldn't agree more.
Comment by Larry Nelson — December 25, 2008 @ 7:40 am
Alternatively:
http://www.thepomoblog.com/archive/survival-isnt-...
Comment by KareAnderson — December 25, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
>What a fucking waste of human energy.
I disagree. I think spending time to think long-term as well as challenge your thinking by trying to extrapolate what will happen is pretty useful, whether you do it in Dec or July….
Comment by Anton Chuvakin — December 30, 2008 @ 11:16 am
Thinking and planning is a lot different, intent-wise, than publishing a list of "predictions".
Comment by matt schulte — December 31, 2008 @ 2:21 am
Brad- On the whole I completely agree, however, I will say that looking back on the year past is a good exercise if you do it with the attitude of, "what can we learn from 2008". I always think its a good idea to look backward for lessons and forward for opportunities.
Comment by RyanGraves — December 31, 2008 @ 3:08 am
Did you see my predictions from a few years ago, Brad? http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/12/p...
Comment by seth godin — December 31, 2008 @ 3:22 am
The thing I *like* about predictions is that it's one of the few times where great thinkers are willing to take risks and speak freely as opposed to writing posts that simply follow the herd or attempt to game Techmeme.
I agree that predictions should largely be ignored but the energy and amount of conversation that surrounds them is something worth cultivating
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Comment by Sam — December 31, 2008 @ 3:25 am
What's amazing is that the press is asking all the same people who got every thing wrong last year what is going to happen this year including those who "predicted" the price of oil and the course of the economy.
As Nassim Taleb points out, even asking those who happened to get things right doesn't make much sense. If we used roulette wheels to make predictions, most would be wrong by the end of the year and a few would be proclaimed "geniuses" and be put in charge of hedge funds.
Comment by Tom Evslin — December 31, 2008 @ 3:27 am
Britney Spears had a hit record?
Comment by Dave — December 31, 2008 @ 5:58 am
>The thing I *like* about predictions is that it's one of the few times where great thinkers
>are willing to take risks and speak freely
Amen to that! That is pretty much what I wanted to say, but phrased way better
Comment by Anton Chuvakin — December 31, 2008 @ 6:23 am
Who is Britney Spears? It that a fancy type of broccoli?
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 6:39 am
Did Dana Carvey channel Britney before her time? http://www.danacarvey.net/media/broccoli.wav
Comment by Dave — December 31, 2008 @ 7:09 am
Brilliant.
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 7:13 am
I agree that looking backward to learn lessons is valuable. I just think people prognosticating about “looking forward predictions” is a waste of time and energy.
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 8:07 am
You are such an amazing seer of the future. But, we’ve always known that about you. I’m especially impressed that you were able to predict in 2002 that by 2008 we would all know who the governor of Alaska is. Seriously, I love your “be ready for anything” ending as that is the only way to live life. What’s a uniform, btw?
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 8:09 am
I’d challenge your assumption that the majority of predictions comes from great thinkers. Instead, I’d assert that most of them come from journalists, hacks, and randoms. And – when the great thinkers come up with predictions, they are usually wrong anyway!
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 8:10 am
Fair enough…but I'd take a hack willing to put themselves — and their thoughts (brilliant or not) — out in the open for public dissection over a 'great thinker' who chooses not to have a voice any day. It's through the dissection of thought and its ensuring conversation that innovation often springs, in my opinion. Blogs can also often be stepping stones to new opportunities; the person once considered a hack may not always be thought of as such…
Comment by Sam — December 31, 2008 @ 8:18 am
I encourage you to read The Black Swan by Taleb. He’ll change your view on the value of predictions.
I completely agree with you on the value of people willing to put themselves out there for public dissection (and discussion) over someone who chooses not to have a voice. I just don’t think “the annual prediction rigmarole” is equivalent to people putting themselves out there for public discussion!
Comment by Brad Feld — December 31, 2008 @ 8:23 am
I'm half way through the Black Swan…my point is really just that the spirit of free thinking that I observe during "the annual prediction rigmarole" outweighs the lack of actual prediction successes. I am in complete agreement that predictions in and of themselves hold little value.
Have a great Holiday Brad.
Comment by Sam — December 31, 2008 @ 8:57 am
[...] Brad Feld [...]
Pingback by Looking for End of the Year Reading? Check Out These Fav Bloggers | EcoSilly — December 31, 2008 @ 11:02 am
[...] No predictions for me. I’m done with that thanks to Brad Feld. [...]
Pingback by Thank you Mr. Wilson « Santa Barbarian at the Gate — December 31, 2008 @ 11:21 am
[...] Brad Feld recently pointed out this is a pretty much a waste of time – but it’s also something fun and so I’m still [...]
Pingback by Profitable Signals: » Blog Archive » Review of My 2008 Predictions & 2009 Predictions (both via RWW) — December 31, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
[...] did a prediction post last year but in the spirit of admitting “What the F&%k do I really know?” I figured I would compile a small list of trends I am observing and personal wishes for trends [...]
Pingback by LeveragingIdeas 2009 Trends and Wish List | Leveraging Ideas — December 31, 2008 @ 12:55 pm
You're such a prediction Grinch. In return of the encouragement of reading the black swan (aka an emergent system to me from environmental theory) I encourage you to read some McLuhan – particularly his Tetrad methodology – which is what he used to predict the social impacts of technology.
Leigh "The hack who loves to predict and loves reading predictions" Himel
Comment by Leigh — January 2, 2009 @ 1:57 am
I'm with you, as I indicated in my posting earlier this week, fortune tellers.
The predictions without context are worthless. However, it is instructive to think about why the better thinkers are thinking as they are, so some prediction pieces that include an exposition of the ideas are worthy of readling. The saving grace is that usually you can tell which are which pretty quickly.
Comment by tom brakke — January 2, 2009 @ 2:31 am
Yes indeed – my inner Grinch comes out. I have read plenty of McLuhan and I enjoy it very much!
Comment by Brad Feld — January 2, 2009 @ 3:25 am
Thank you Brad. I am sure Taleb thanks you as well!
Comment by Jared Hutchings — January 2, 2009 @ 11:03 am
[...] on Online Video OK. I originally wasn’t going to do this. I agree a lot with Brad Feld’s post when it comes to predictions. But what the heck. Why not throw my hat into the wonderful world of [...]
Pingback by 2009 Predictions on Online Video « tailslating — January 3, 2009 @ 10:56 am
Predictions do hold value, they are just not predictive — they tell you about the present, not the future. What they tend to tell you is what people are currently concerned about or interested in. This is the topic of the next LIFT conference http://www.liftconference.com/(I have no interest in this) which will "look back to look ahead" — I think this should be interesting.
The irony of course is that venture capital (especially early stage) tends to be somewhat predictive by nature. Are we lucky or talented when we spot market trends and time them correctly ? I would err on the side of the former
Comment by Fred Destin — January 7, 2009 @ 5:11 am
[...] prediction for 2009 – the vast majority of the 2009 predictions will be wrong. Recommendation – Ignore All The 2009 Predictions « “Starving the unemployed” may not have been the goal, but if [...]
Pingback by BlogBites. Like sound bites. But without the sound. » Blog Archive » My prediction for 2009 – the vast majority of the 2009 predictions will be wrong. — January 9, 2009 @ 12:33 pm
This is a call for journalists and bloggers to please not stop making half baked predictions for the new year. We run the New Year Pundit awards for the best and worst New Year predictions (judged at the year end). For 2008 one of the most hotly contested awards was the wooden spoon for worst pundit: http://newspundits.hubdub.com/2009/01/2008-new-ye...
(BTW In our analysis we have found that some people are much better predictors than others however there appears to be an inverse relationship between quality of predictions and readership. People like extreme predictions when actually more often than not the world takes the middle course.)
Comment by Nigel_Eccles — January 12, 2009 @ 10:47 am
I think awareness helps one understand and refine one's thoughts/actions in real time. Awareness is a continuous exercise and not something left for 2345 on Dec 31st.
Comment by Akhil — January 16, 2009 @ 6:46 am
Was just wondering how long you have been online and doing this stuff?
Comment by Robert Dane — June 14, 2009 @ 8:45 pm
485 our of 500 things predicted going wrong were all terrible predictors. Perhaps, they were more into astrology rather than statistics, :wink
Comment by Ask Questions — June 19, 2009 @ 8:22 am
Ignore all? I don't even read them. For me, whatever done is done. We should try to make 2009 a better year for us by not repeating the mistakes we did in 2008. Rather than reviews and highlighting the bad decisions and predictions, they should offer advices on how to make green valley nv homes new year a better year.
Comment by Travis Breton — June 19, 2009 @ 8:48 pm
Yeah but isn't it fun to watch so many people be wrong!
Comment by Adwido — June 20, 2009 @ 11:11 pm
My prediction for 2009 is also that the vast majority of the 2009 predictions will be wrong
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Comment by jalismak — June 22, 2009 @ 8:52 am
I agree well said bruce. A prediction is not an excuse it's someone trying to use information and then throw out a guess. Can't be held accountable but can only get praise.
Comment by BigBen — June 24, 2009 @ 6:21 pm
Predictions are just fine…but we don't need to really rely on them…
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Comment by Night Life — June 26, 2009 @ 12:37 pm
The first book that came to mind when I saw this post in my RSS feeder was The Black Swan, which you immediately referenced. As humans we are really awful at making predictions and really good at looking at things in hindsight.
Thanks
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Comment by Night Club — July 9, 2009 @ 12:48 am
Of course, the financial markets have been a disaster in Q3 and Q4. The housing bubble has finally officially exploded (doesn’t explode sounds more dramatic than burst.)
Thanks
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Comment by Gi-metoden — July 10, 2009 @ 11:57 am
As Nassim Taleb points out, even asking those who happened to get things right doesn't make much sense. If we used roulette wheels to make predictions, most would be wrong by the end of the year and a few would be proclaimed "geniuses" and be put in charge of hedge funds.
Thanks
Konferens
Comment by Konferens — July 11, 2009 @ 8:51 am
The irony of course is that venture capital (especially early stage) tends to be somewhat predictive by nature. Are we lucky or talented when we spot market trends and time them correctly ? I would err on the side of the former
Thanks
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Comment by Acotis @ Trollbeads — July 12, 2009 @ 2:08 pm
As Will Rogers said, "It's not that people are so stupid, it's just that they know so many things are not true." Great Post…I couldn't agree more.
Comment by Ed Hardy Purses — July 13, 2009 @ 11:47 am
You get a finite number of years on this planet – make the most of all of them, no matter what is going on around you.
Cheers!
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Comment by Grimpse — July 14, 2009 @ 10:54 am
Yes i definitely believe that most of the predictions will be wrong.Let's just hope for the best of year 2009.More Power!
Comment by biolabs skin creme — July 21, 2009 @ 2:10 pm
I'm partly surprised that the marketing geeks did not factor in the role of search engines and how it will influence their marketing efforts come 2009. Although social media will definitely contribute but the limitation of experience shared will not make it a reliable resource on its own yet. Much of the information and insight needed will still be searched online.
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Comment by yolygarrido2000 — July 30, 2009 @ 4:35 am
A prediction isn't an excuse to not learn or evaluate a topic which is what usually happens. I'd rather see people refine their bullshit detectors and learn to take things with a grain of salt, especially since we're creatures of habit and *crave* predictability in our lives.
Comment by Acai Berries — August 5, 2009 @ 2:31 pm
Was just wondering how long you have been online and doing this stuff?
Comment by Resveratrol — August 5, 2009 @ 2:32 pm
Although social media will definitely contribute but the limitation of experience shared will not make it a reliable resource on its own yet. Much of the information and insight needed will still be searched online.
Comment by Acai — August 5, 2009 @ 2:57 pm
I like your post but I am not fully agree with prediction.
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Comment by Resveratrol — August 19, 2009 @ 11:30 am
Great post. I could never have predicted this time last year where I would be this time this year.
Comment by Car Hire UK — August 27, 2009 @ 3:44 pm
thank you for the information. they are really very hypocritical.
Comment by Rizal — August 29, 2009 @ 8:02 am
Yeah.. actually this whole thing about predictions is just an utter waste of time.. we're already into half the year.. n we see none of them are actually true!! atleast this proof should stop people from doing it again n again every year
Comment by Digitalwebtalk — September 3, 2009 @ 4:51 pm
There was also a prediction that whole world will finish on 09-09-09 but nothing happened like this.
I don't believe them now..
Comment by Wedding Drsses — September 15, 2009 @ 6:27 pm
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Comment by Jack — September 24, 2009 @ 12:01 am
The predictions without context are worthless. However, it is instructive to think about why the better thinkers are thinking as they are, so some prediction pieces that include an exposition of the ideas are worthy of readling. The saving grace is that usually you can tell which are which pretty quickly.
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Comment by Jack — September 24, 2009 @ 12:02 am
There was also a prediction that whole world will finish on 09-09-09 but nothing happened like this.
I don’t believe them now..
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Comment by Jack — September 24, 2009 @ 12:04 am
I couldn't agree for this.According to me this is not necessary for waiting time.If you want to di something then time is now.
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Comment by marley — September 26, 2009 @ 5:12 am
I've been taught if you want do something in life the time is now. So according to that theory any time is a good time to accomplish your dream.
Comment by Resveratrol — September 29, 2009 @ 12:34 pm
Hey,
Great post. I kinda stumbled upon your blog and now I've added it to my bookmarks. Interesting stuff.
Best,
Jerome Nickerson
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Comment by jerome — October 6, 2009 @ 12:52 pm
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Comment by pest control Raleigh — October 20, 2009 @ 1:10 pm
I really don't believe it either, seems fake.
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Comment by Mike — October 27, 2009 @ 5:43 pm
There are always those people out there, the 'know it all' type who think they have every answer. I agree with you, ignore all of them and let it happen as it should.
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Comment by Chris — October 29, 2009 @ 6:39 pm
The irony of course is that venture capital (especially early stage) tends to be somewhat predictive by nature. Are we lucky or talented when we spot market trends and time them correctly ? I would err on the side of the former
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Comment by Extenze — October 30, 2009 @ 3:50 pm
I think that sometimes, writing words can be useful in some way. My ideas anyway.
Comment by Norton 360 Coupon — October 31, 2009 @ 5:21 pm
Financial predictions? let's go play the lottery or bet on the horses
Comment by Seatons Solicitors — November 2, 2009 @ 7:00 pm
The prediction game is a tough one, that prediction rate looks terrible but then it depends on what exactly you are predicting. The problem is that predictions suffer from the butterfly effect, and you can never spot the butterfly
Comment by Matias — November 3, 2009 @ 4:48 pm
A nice blog.i think that this session will take a good, hard look at everything that's cool
Comment by online scheduling — November 6, 2009 @ 11:01 am
that's really a fantastic post ! ! added to my favourite blogs list..
Comment by Online appointments — November 12, 2009 @ 7:09 am
Thanks for the post!
The prediction game is a tough one, that prediction rate looks terrible but then it depends on what exactly you are predicting.
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Comment by Pest control Austin — November 14, 2009 @ 7:39 am
Predicting things is very difficult job.
Comment by Bronchitis — November 27, 2009 @ 12:51 pm
that prediction rate looks terrible but then it depends on what exactly you are predicting.
Comment by Kid birthday party — November 27, 2009 @ 10:04 am
I also never rely on these magazine predictions, reality is totally different.
Comment by Lung cancer — December 8, 2009 @ 2:24 pm
Thanks!
The prediction game is a tough one,
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Comment by Steven Wagenheim — December 23, 2009 @ 7:35 pm
what can one expect if they dont make the best of it? recently ive discovered that mens jewelry is growing rapidly, especially bike chain bracelet jewelry, which means that there are still plenty of ways to make 2009 (and beyond) still profitable and seasonally unchallenged. creativity and style is usually the winner, always!
Comment by Josh Staer — December 24, 2009 @ 6:59 am
I never listen to predictions anyway. Now that 2009 is nearing an end we can all see how off they all are
Comment by website flipping — December 31, 2009 @ 9:57 am
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